| 2008 - The Year of Unimaginable Possibilities Comes to an End |
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| Economic Hotpot |
| Written by Oluwasegun Popoola |
| Thursday, 01 January 2009 13:37 |
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We all should have seen this coming. It all started in early January 2008 when crude oil prices reached over $140 per barrel for the very first time in the history of mankind. Little did we know that this incident signaled the beginning of a year that would end with amazing and heart rendering events that would shape Nigeria’s economic and political future and the world by extension? Few days after and in the same month, stock markets across the world took a plunge having come to reality with the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. At this time, technocrats at the helm of economic affairs in the United States continued to deny the emergence of recession in the world’s largest economy which was quite in contrast with discussions within academic circles and college classes where there was a general consensus that the United States was already in a depression. February 2008 saw further decline in the US stock market with wide ramifications across the world. The impact of the US crisis had began to take its toll on markets across the world with the first casualty – Northern Rock, the fifth largest mortgage bank in the UK nationalized by the UK government. Nigerians began to feel the impact of the crisis with the rising food and fuel prices. The Nigerian government at some point had to import grains to increase the nation’s strategic reserve and stave off potential food shortages which led to riots and unrests in several emerging economies in March and April 2008. The slide in the Nigerian stock market had begun and went largely unnoticed in March 2008. By June 2008, Nigeria had begun its fair share of a slide that would jolt investor confidence and lead to decisions that had never been seen in Nigeria in the over four decades of establishing the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). In fact, the management of the NSE froze stock prices in the second week of June 2008 in an unprecedented move to stop sliding stock prices largely due to the significant reduction in the influx of funds from abroad as most global financial institutions took a breather and reviewed their risk management profile owing to the growing mortgage crisis in North America; Nigerian banking guidelines such as the rescinded Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policy proposal asking all banks to switch to a common uniform financial reporting date of December 31 and the ban on margin trading. The pains and impact on the Nigerian professional is only a child’s play when in numbers one considers that the NSE wiped out 13% or over 1 trillion NAIRA/8 billion USD of investor wealth between early March and mid June 2008. For many who were heavily exposed to the NSE via personal savings and loans, the nightmares of margin calls and early repayment of loans were stark realities to live with. In a country full of parodies, the Nigerian president was out for weeks in August 2008 without any credible explanation from the authorities only to reappear shortly after. The same month also marked the closure of the infamous Third Mainland Bridge for almost two months to repair some defective joints. In September 2008, the crisis which begun in the United States had snowballed into one of unimaginable proportions that would leave the world markets in disarray with Lehman Brothers filing for Bankruptcy protection becoming the largest bankruptcy in US history. Nigeria by now was inundated by a massive revenue surplus owing to the high crude oil prices. That would fuel the appreciation of the Naira against major currencies with the hopes that the Naira would exchange for 1 USD in double digits and not the triple digits (i.e. high of 140) which was the norm for several years. The crisis made news headline when Iceland declared bankruptcy. How Iceland, the tiny island of less than 1 million people got itself entangled in the world’s financial crisis is a testament to the impact of globalization. Countries such as Hungary also signed for bailout packages from the World Bank. In Nigeria, the Nigerian government through the CBN governor declared there would be no bail out for the ailing Nigerian stock market. December 2008 was marked by continued fall in crude oil prices from a high of almost 150USD/ barrel in July 2008 to a low of the 30s in December 2008. The decline not only threw the 2009 Nigerian budget in disarray but led to a significant shortage in US Dollars leading to a rapid depreciation of the naira. Indeed, the year of many firsts has finally come to an end. Again, to all our readers, we at InCorporate Nigeria Magazine wish to thank you for the support, comments and criticisms. Events of the last five months since our inception have proved to us yet again that with you all on our side, we can make huge inroads in to helping prepare Nigeria for the change that is yet to come. What more can we say!!! Happy New Year!!! Hope we do all meet at the top by God’s grace. |
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Look back at 2008 and ask yourself several questions. Did you think crude oil prices would climb to over 100 USD per barrel; Lehman Brothers would collapse, a black man would become the 44th US president in your lifetime; a sitting Nigerian president would be out of the country for weeks without a coup or an attempted coup for that matter; a Nigerian would be named as one of the 50 most powerful beings on earth and the Nigerian stock market would dip by over 30% in market capitalization. Those were some of the events that redefined a year we at InCorporate Nigeria Magazine have to come to refer to as ‘The Year of Unimaginable Possibilities’.